Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
